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The Conservative Message:
The message is lost. And they donít know where to find it. And trying to find it among Republicans is not where itís hidden. Too often when things go so terribly wrong, people look to emulate others instead of looking for what they lost. The Republicans are lost and they canít figure out who they should try to be to become popular again. And itís unfortunate that they donít realize that itís not about a person, but itís about a message. They have drifted too far from the basics and they donít know how to get back.
The Simple Plan:
The Conservative Message has always been simple: Cut taxes, reduce inflation, and get the Government the hell out of the way. Itís basic and if people really thought about what they believe, everyone does follow this mantra. Everyone wants to keep their own money, everyone wants their own money to have more value, and everyone wants to be the person in control of their own lives. But the Republicans have lost their way and they just canít seem to make themselves live their own creed. And they donít seem to know how to get back on track.
Nobody will disagree. Well, almost nobody will disagree. There are some true Ďtax and spendí Liberals, although there are very few who will come out and say that, or really justify why. Most want the money behind closed doors, but realize that elections arenít won by raising taxes on the electorate. We just elected a Democratic President who promised a tax cut, and a refund to come down the road. So, we all agree that we need to cut taxes and let the people keep and control more of their own money. It sounds pretty easy on paper.
Debating Tax Cuts and Spending:
Where we all disagree is where to cut the spending. Since President Bush proved you canít continue to increase spending without increasing taxes lest you create economic hardships, you have to find out where we are wastefully spending and make cuts. We have to let people keep as much of THEIR money as possible. And the Conservatives seem to have forgotten that simple point. Stop spending the peopleís money and let them keep it. The Conservatives seem incapable of finding their own simple message and have really lost touch with the idea of reduced spending.
A bit more complex than just cutting taxes and it really brings the value of the dollar into play. The ĎBorrow and Spendí policy of the current White House has shown that the value of the dollar can deteriorate quickly if you donít have anything to back it up. And youíve got to produce something. You have to create incentives for business to come back to this country and produce goods that people need. Doesnít it make sense to reduce taxes on businesses to create incentive for them to open shop in this country and create American jobs?
Increase Taxed Plan:
If there are more people working, there are more people that the government can tax. Why increase taxes on just one person when you can get more by taxing three of them at a lower rate? Increase the headcount of the number the government is taking money from and you wonít have to increase the amount of money you take from each individual worker. And if more people are working and have money, then more people are spending money and boosting the economy. If more people are working to boost the dollar and economy, inflation will fall.
Higher Tax Brackets:
Donít increase taxes on the individual; create a system and an environment where more businesses are creating greater opportunity for advancement, in turn paying people more, driving more people into higher tax brackets. Donít raise the taxes on the current worker, create a situation where each worker advances to a higher tax bracket and that is how the government gets more money from them. And all of this money is backed up by real business and real product. Itís not just about creating jobs, but creating jobs in the private sector where something tangible is being produced.
The UnEmployed Worker
The unemployed worker is the greatest drain on the governmentís system. The government needs money from everyone to survive, but an unemployed person kills them in two ways. Obviously, Government can not take money from someone who is not bringing in any money. But also, more often than not, the government has to pay the unemployed worker to not bring in any money for them. So not only is that unemployed worker not bringing money in, they are actually taking money out. It kills the government system, not to mention the drain on inflation and the economy.
Just creating government jobs where there is nothing produced in the end only moves money around and does not help the economy and certainly doesnít reduce inflation. You are just taking Government money and cycling it through the people and then taxing it back at a much lower rate. To reduce inflation, or increase the value of the dollar, this country has to get back to producing goods in the private sector, which in turn creates valuable jobs, which increases money in the economy, which drives people into higher tax brackets, which increases the amount of dollars taxed.
Get the Government the Hell out of the way:
With the current market, this is not a popular thing to say right now given blame being thrown around at Wall Street and the Housing Market and the cry for more Government Regulation. But everyone should stop listening to the media. They are selling fear for top dollar. With that said, this isnít a cry for Anarchy or even Libertarianism. Regulation has its just place. The Government needs to protect the people from corruption. But too often, itís that fear of corruption that drives us to give Government too much authority.
The First Political Battle:
The authority of the Federal Government was the first political battle. It began with a disagreement between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson. Hamilton believed that we needed a strong National Government and that a central power was the only thing that could preserve this nation. Jefferson believed the power belonged to the people and the States had the authority over a strong central force. And Hamiltonís Federalist Party and Jeffersonís Democratic-Republicanís would be the first of many two party systems to come in this country. And it all began by debating the size of the Government.
Jefferson and later Andrew Jackson had it right in that the Governmentís job is to allow the people every opportunity to live up to their potential and not try to force their own authority over that potential. The governmentís job is not to provide for the people, but to provide the optimum environment to allow people to provide for themselves. If you dig into the Housing Crisis, youíll find plenty of Government regulation that played its role in creating an environment where people were encouraged to live beyond their means. It spiraled out of control quickly and collapsed.
Accountability of the People:
The biggest problem on the back end is there is NO accountability. Some level of a bailout is a necessity to keep the train running, but the most important thing going forward is to lay out the system where accountability is the cornerstone for everyone. If you choose to live beyond your means, then you are held accountable. If you choose to make bad loans; you are held accountable. If you make bad decisions on any level; you are held accountable. The Governmentís job is not to protect stupid, but to create an environment of accountability.
So what does all this mean to the New President? Most likely it means very little. The biggest concern about the in-coming President is that we have someone coming in who has never really held a job of authority and has never really had to make big decisions, and now (in all likelihood the fault of the current Government; both the Democratic Congress and Republican White House) the President will have to make arguably the toughest decisions of any President since Abraham Lincoln (also a President that never held a job until he got to the White House).
The New President is going to be saddled with the worst economic disaster in 70 years, although he does have the advantage of not being the blame of that economy. He also has a building problem between Hamas and Israel, two US wars to finish, Somali Pirates, Blago, GuantŠnamo Bay, ever growing terrorism, torture, Osama Bin Laden, championing domestic struggles of race relations, and renewed problems between India and Pakistan. So the Conservative Movement shouldnít be a big concern of his since he has the luxury of an almost guaranteed re-election barring a complete fiasco from his administration.
The Ironic Democrat:
The ironic switch in this last campaign was that the Democrat really came off as the Conservative possibility. Obama is no longer talking about raising anyoneís taxes. He claimed he wants to go through the budget line by line and cut spending, while McCain claimed he wanted to buy up all the bad mortgages. If you were a Conservative watching this campaign, every time you turned around John McCain was spending your money. Itís still too early to know who will keep what promises, but President Obama has so far been a long way from the Left.
The Message Moving Forward:
The Conservative Movement isnít a concern of President Obama. He has the luxury of a guaranteed re-election barring a complete fiasco from his administration. His popularity is not just strong, itís legendary and historic. The reality is that the Republicans need to use the next 8 years getting their ship in order and stop being followers and remember how to be leaders. They need to use the complete 8 years to stop chasing and start leading. They need to be ready to take the reigns. The Country will be ready for them again in 8 years.
So who is ready to lead? Who is ready to be the New Voice of the Conservative Movement? The key to success for them is a break from the Republican Party as it exists today. Itís broken and un-fixable. And you have to stay away from the 2012 election. It will be a sacrificial time for the Republicans and you might as well throw a Bob Dole type in there to take the dive. The chips are in line and there isnít enough time to overcome the situation, so there is no need to sacrifice a real contender.
Can Sarah Be President:
I would say itís highly unlikely she can come back. For the obvious reason, she has to overcome her current image that was created by both the media and herself. The media certainly was doing everything they could to find the flaws and doing nothing to focus on her record and her character. But, she didnít do herself any favors with her defensive posturing and the Katie Couric interview. At this moment in 2009, it is highly unlikely she can overcome her public image much in the same way Dan Quayle could never overcome his either.
How Sarah Becomes President:
Vanish. Let us forget about you for at least two years. And use that time to become an expert on everything. Read every newspaper and follow every issue. Learn how Washington and the Media work politically. Spend this time to become a great speaker and become a great debater on all those issues you will become an expert on. The current image is so damaged that we have to forget about you and then when you re-appear, you have to overcome that image with such a swing in the other direction that we manage to forget.
Sarahís Eight-Year Plan:
Itís an eight year plan to get to the White House, so forget about 2012. Letís take some time and bulk up the resume. Exposure in Washington is a must. There are two possible paths. The 2010 senate seat will be coming up, although a Republican is currently holding that seat. Or get re-elected to Governor in 2010 and run for the Democrat seat that will be up again in 2014. Washington exposure, or more importantly, East Coast Press and Political exposure is an absolute necessity. Getting elected as Governor and Senator makes for a solid resume.
The Conservative Horizon:
Clearly there has to be more to offer than Sarah Palin. She has so much to overcome that itís unlikely she can pull it off. And since there is an overwhelming chance that we are headed for eight years of the current President, then there is no need for the young talent to sacrifice themselves in the 2012 slaughter that is coming. If I were guessing, 2012 will produce a more traditional Replican with Conservative ties like Mitt Romney to take the fall, but what happens four years later when the country is ready to move ĎRightí?
The Young Talent:
So who is slated as the bright future of the Conservative Movement? There are two obvious choices that emerge as left-overs from the McCain Vice-Presidential search: The Indian Governor from Louisiana and the Republican Governor from the Liberal North. Both Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty are likely possibilities to hold off for the 2016 election and run for President. Both have conservative backgrounds and both are young and eager and will have complete resumes by that time. Both have names out on the national scene and both appear to be headed down the right road for success.
The newly elected Louisiana Governor is only 37 years old. But he already has a solid resume locally and nationally in that short period of time. He actually ran for Governor in 2003 at the age of 32 and made a strong showing but didnít win. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 2004 and served two terms before being elected Governor last year. He is often referred to as the ĎRepublican Obamaí due to his smooth rhetoric and ability to connect with his speeches. And he is a Rhodes Scholar with a strong national image.
The second term Governor of Minnesota has shown that there are Conservative desires in the traditionally liberal world of the Midwest. He was elected Governor by running on traditional conservative principles of not raising taxes and balancing the budget. He came to national prominence when rumors surfaced of him being a possible McCain VP nominee and while hosting the Republican National Convention last year in St. Paul. He has kept his face in the national spotlight by appearing on multiple national news shows and continues to put forward his well spoken and convincing message of traditional conservative values.
The Media Blindness:
The Media is going to be interesting to watch during the Obama Administration. I donít think there is anyone who would disagree that the Media is in love with Barack Obama. It goes above and beyond what weíve seen as traditionally a Liberal swing of the Media. Even during the Democratic Primary, they abandoned the other Liberal Candidates and fell completely in the tank for Obama. And now that he is in the White House, it will be interesting to see how long the Honeymoon lasts. Itís hard to believe they will continue with this praise forever.
Apparently the Media doesnít understand what Bi-Partisanism or Compromise really means. They praise the President for meeting with House Republicans to ďdiscussĒ his Stimulus Package. He is being praised for meeting with a group of known Conservatives. What the Media is missing is that the President isnít actually changing his thinking or considering any proposals offered because he doesnít have to. He isnít working in a Bi-Partisan way because the White House and Congress are all controlled by one party. So they donít have to compromise. Dictating is not discussing. Listening but not considering anything does not create compromise.
And now they are throwing around Reaganís name when referring to Obama. The Media loves to compare his Ďhappy hourí with the Republicans to the many meetings that President Reagan had with Tip OíNeil. The Media loves to point out that Obama understands that you have to Ďschmoozeí the other side to legislate effectively. The problem with that comparison is that Reagan never had the House on his side. He was never even as close as 50 seats. He had to compromise with Tip OíNeil to get things done. Obama has all of Congress and doesnít need to compromise.
The Conservative Revival:
What will be interesting is the mid-term elections in 2010. Traditionally, it goes the opposite direction of the White House, however, this is a special White House and these are strong majorities. The people seem to have spoken on a huge level saying that this is the way they want the country to go. You do have to wonder how many of these elections were weighted due to the strong support and turnout for Obama that wonít happen again in mid-terms. And if the economy is still struggling, will the blame shift from Republicans to President Obama?
Can a Conservative Revival occur or is this really the death of Republicanism? The answer to that question likely falls on the President. His spend to create, Big Government policy is in direct conflict with the Conservative Message. If the Presidentís legislation leads the country out of the recession and on to great success, then Democratic support as well as seats in Congress will only grow. The future of Conservatism is not in the hands of themselves, but rests in the hands of a man who has been called, by some, the most Liberal President of all time.
The reality is that Conservatism is alive and well, the separation is between the message and the Republicans. The Party is currently in a chase and follow mode and is struggling to find its leader and its voice. Until the new leaders come forward remembering the simple message of cut taxes, reduce inflation, and get the government the hell out of the way, it will continue to struggle and lose on a National scene. The Republicans have always had their greatest success by preaching its basic platform and can now only be saved by remembering that simple plan.
The Tip Jar